2026 Trucker Outlook: Signs Point to Regulatory and Economic Shifts Ahead

2026 Trucker Outlook: Signs Point to Regulatory and Economic Shifts Ahead

Truckers are used to conditions changing by the by the mile and the minute. That’s helped them take the turmoil of 2025 in stride. The year has been filled with uncertainties ranging from the barrage of regulation changes and on-and-off tariffs to the non-stop talk of carrier bankruptcies and recessionary signs.

Rolling through the challenges is a key trait of truckers, but it’s important not to become desensitized to the issues affecting trucking – and there are a lot of them.

Here are the top ones to keep a close eye on in 2026.


Rates Continue to Slow Walk Their Way to Change
After three years of freight recession, there are signs that the lingering low rates will rise in 2026. C.H. Robinson’s November forecast is for 2% to 4% year-over-year growth for dry van truckload rates on the spot market.

Their forecast for reefer truckload rates is also positive. They predict from 2% to 3% year-over-year growth.

Make the most of the bump with TruckLoads from Trucker Path. You get free access to 150,000+ loads daily, and the load variety lets you try a new niche like reefer or flatbed hauling that opens revenue opportunities.


Ops Costs’ Are a Good-News-Bad-News Story
According to the American Transportation Research Institute (ATRI) Analysis of the Operational Costs of Trucking: 2025 Update, the costs of operating a truck decreased .4% in 2024 from $2.270 per mile to $2.260 per mile. ATRI credits the drop in diesel prices for the good news, but when you take fuel out of the equation, it’s a different story.

In 2024 ops costs, excluding fuel, rose 3.6% to $1.779 per mile and set a new record. Truck payments and insurance premiums are the key culprits. Interest rates and insurance premiums remain high and show no signs of dropping in the near future.

Preventative maintenance to protect current equipment is wise in this environment with its high lending rates and tariff-related constriction on parts and new trucks. It’s also key to maintain a clean safety score to garner the most favorable insurance rate possible.


English Language Proficiency Crackdown Continues
President Trump’s Executive Orders released in April were big news in 2025. The Executive Orders mandate drivers meet standards of English language proficiency (ELP) and also direct states to scrutinize non-domiciled CDLs.

According to Supply Chain 247, the short-term impact of ELP on transportation is expected to be minimal. According to the publication, if the average number of inspections and ELP violations resulting in OOS (out-of-service) violations remains constant, almost 17,000 drivers will be taken offline in the coming year. That will amount to about .78% of the 2,174,120 active, interstate CDLs in America.


New FMCSA Safety Management System to Affect Driver Safety Scores
FMCSA’s new SMS (Safety Management System) is coming soon. It’s important to understand how these changes will affect how carriers’ safety scores are determined and displayed.

The new system aims to ensure fairness by holding similar carriers to the same standard. The new SMS also aims to boost accuracy by continually improving the quality of the data to enable the FMCSA to focus on motor carriers most in need of intervention. Another stated goal of the new SMS is enhancing clarity for motor carriers by helping them better understand results and adopt safer habits.

Key Changes to the FMCSA SMS
1. Consolidated BASICS categories from seven to two categories
2. Reorganized roadside violations from 2,000 codes to 100 groups
3. Simplified violation severity weights
4. Adjusted intervention thresholds to spotlight carriers with the highest crash risk
5. Created proportionate percentiles enabling precise comparison and tracking of carrier safety and performance
6. Shifted focus to recent violations within last 12 months
7. Updated utilization factor to adjust for carriers’ on-road exposure
8. Improved segmentation of vehicle types and roles for accurate comparison
9. Excluded not-preventable crashes from SMS results


Expect Strict Enforcement of Drug and Alcohol Violations
2025 saw new rules requiring state driver’s licensing authorities to automatically downgrade or revoke CDLs of drivers who have a “prohibited” Clearinghouse status. A prohibited status means that a driver has a violation on record for a drug or alcohol offense and hasn’t completed the return-to-duty steps. Going into 2026, states will continue to be notified of by FMCSA and have 60 days to comply.

The onus us on drivers and carriers to monitor motor vehicle records or face strict consequences. In addition to loss of a CDL, violators can face steep fines. With Clearinghouse data now closely linked to state licensing authorities and stricter enforcement, it’s essential to follow the rules and keep a clean record.


EDL Exemptions Mean You Might Not Have to Turn Off Paper
Electronic Logging Device (ELD) rules have applied to most commercial drivers since 2017. There are exemptions to ELD rules. The exception for trucks with pre-2000 engines was set to expire in 2025, but despite rumors, remains in effect. Going into 2026, the FMCSA website continues to list this ELD exemption as well as two others.

A second exemption pertains to drivers who use paper logs no more than eight days during any 30-day period.

A third ELD exemption is for driveaway-towaway drivers where “the vehicle driven is the commodity,” per the FMCSA. Examples include motor homes or recreational vehicles with at least one set of wheels of the vehicle touching the road during transportation.


Hours-of-Service Changes to Be Considered
Two pilot programs exploring hours-of-service (HOS) alternatives will be launched in 2026, according to the U.S. Department of Transportation (DOT).

In September, U.S. Transportation Secretary Sean P. Duffy announced that that the FMCSA plans to study flexibility in the HOS regulations to determine if providing drivers with greater control over their own schedule reduces fatigue and improves safety.

The “Split Duty Period” pilot will allow participating drivers to pause their 14-hour “driving window” for no less than 30 minutes and no more than three hours.

The “Flexible Sleeper Berth” pilot will explore additional sleeper berth split options beyond the current “8/2” and “7/3” configurations. FMCSA will test the safety implications of allowing drivers to divide their 10-hour off-duty requirement into “6/4” and “5/5” split periods.


CDL Training Schools Under Scrutiny
DOT and FMCSA announced a crackdown on CDL (commercial driver’s license) training schools that will continue into 2026.

During a press conference on October 30, 2025, U.S. Department of Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy targeted CDL schools whom he says are certifying unqualified drivers.

“We are going to go after the CDL mills issuing licenses across the country,” he stated. “We are going to take a hard look at those individuals.” Duffy warned of future investigations to hold CDL schools accountable and of serious consequences for schools violating the rules.

The new scrutiny of CDL training programs is part of a wider driver qualifications issue currently being pressed by authorities that includes ELP and non-domiciled CDL initiatives. The crackdown comes in the wake of recent crashes in Florida and California that are being linked to lax commercial driver licensing and ELP standards.

DOT’s focus extends to trucking companies that hire drivers lacking proper credentials and qualifications. “We are diving into the companies that hire these drivers that may not have a license, that may not have a lawfully issued license, or do not speak the language,” Duffy said. “Companies will be held to account.”


Parking Progress Is in the Works
As part of a package of new initiatives designed to improve the lives of truck drivers, the White House announced that DOT is set to deliver more than $275 million in grant funding to expand parking access for truck drivers nationwide.

This includes $180 million destined for Florida where 917 new truck parking spaces are planned for the I-4 corridor in Volusia, Seminole and Osceola Counties.

Additionally Ohio and Pennsylvania both recently announced expansion of truck parking capacity. According to ATRI’s Critical Issues in the Trucking Industry – 2025 Report, 1,400 spots are going be added in Ohio and 1,200 in Pennsylvania.

Be sure and bring the Trucker Path app with you in 2026 to help you find parking everywhere you go – old, new, paid and free.


2026 Promises to Be a Year Like No Other
The atmosphere of deregulation, government initiatives aimed at improving quality of work and life for truckers, and positive signs for the freight economy make 2026 something to look forward to.

And if you don’t like what you’re seeing, just wait a few weeks. Change is the new reality. Stay close to your Trucker Path community to stay in the know. No matter which way 2026 turns, we’re with you.